Protests for Germany’s car industry as job losses loom
摘要
德国汽车业前景承压，正面临国内需求下滑、海外竞争加剧及新关税成本等多重挑战，同时还需应对劳动力老龄化等结构性问题。欧洲汽车总销量已从2019年峰值大幅下降，部分市场被中国新进入者占据。美国新进口关税也影响德国车出口。工厂关闭可能性上升，大众集团今夏曾考虑关闭四家德国工厂。
The future is looking increasingly bleak for Germany’s automotive industry. Since the turn of the century, car makers have been among the crown jewels of the German economy, punching above their weight in terms of investment and innovation. But those companies are now facing multiple problems at once, from declining demand at home and stronger competition from abroad to the cost of punitive and arbitrary new tariffs, on top of preexisting structural challenges like an aging workforce and a slow recovery from COVID.
Total automotive sales in Europe have fallen from a peak of almost 18 million in 2019 to around 13 million in 2025, and some share of that smaller market is increasingly going to new entrants from China, which has its own spare automotive production capacity problem to worry about. And while the US market has always been the most profitable for German car exports, that was before the imposition of new import tariffs, which currently stand at 25 percent but could be subject to change at any time.
Factory closures now seem not just possible but likely, something that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. Earlier this summer, news emerged that Volkswagen Group is considering closing four of its German factories to prepare for the future. Things have not gotten much better for VW Group in the months since that news broke.
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